The main objective of this presentation is to describe the process of developing computer models of Bus Transit Network Evolution, by capturing the behavior of evolution of bus transit agencies. Bus transit operators constantly and periodically apply “service changes” to their networks to respond to the dynamic changes of ridership across the network, subjected to budget and driver constraints.
Focus is placed on describing the evolution of the development of these models, from a group of statistical and econometric models, to a GIS based Decision Support System, which was named P-TRANE. The first version of P-TRANE represents a modeling framework that was tested on two transit operators across the Greater Toronto Area. Testing results show close relationships to a group of factors, including the operation of capital intensive transit projects, in addition to socio-economic and land-use changes across the City. P-TRANE initial results show they prove to be a useful tool for several planning and operating objectives, including testing several project and policy alternatives for transit agencies and urban/transportation planners. P-TRANE also proves to be a useful tool for testing impacts of commissioning of future massive transit projects on bus networks.